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Changing urban forms and carbon dioxide emissions in China: A case study of 30 provincial capital cities

机译：Changing urban forms and carbon dioxide emissions in China: a case study of 30 provincial capital cities

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Urban form is increasingly being recognised by scientists for the potential role it might play in the coordination of sustainable urban development and the reduction of CO2 emissions. However, despite increasing interest in the morphology of cities in climate change science, few quantitative estimates have been made of the effects of urban form on CO2 emissions. The goal of this study is to quantify this relation, using panel data for China's 30 provincial capital cities from 1990 to 2010. In order to meet this aim, we first selected a series of urban form indicators, which we quantified by applying spatial metrics to remotely sensed data. We then estimated CO2 emission levels using a unified standard method recommended by the IPCC Guidelines, and subsequently performed a panel data analysis. The results of the study demonstrated a positive correlation between the growth of urban areas and CO2 emission levels. Further, it was also found that increased "urban continuity" led to reductions in CO2 emissions and that, conversely, increased "urban shape complexity" exerted a positive influence in relation to CO2 emissions. The findings of this study indicate that measures to make existing cities in China more compact may in fact help to reduce levels of CO2 emissions, just as increasing fragmentation or increased irregularity with respect to urban form may contribute to increased CO2 emissions. If serious about achieving meaningful reductions in CO2 emissions, decision makers and planners should take urban form into consideration when developing low-carbon cities in China. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：科学家日益认识到城市形式在协调可持续城市发展和减少二氧化碳排放中可能发挥的潜在作用。然而，尽管人们对气候变化科学中的城市形态越来越感兴趣，但很少有人定量评估城市形态对二氧化碳排放的影响。本研究的目的是使用1990年至2010年中国30个省会城市的面板数据来量化这种关系。为了实现这一目标，我们首先选择了一系列城市形态指标，并通过将空间指标应用于遥感数据。然后，我们使用IPCC指南建议的统一标准方法估算了CO2排放水平，随后进行了面板数据分析。研究结果表明，城市地区的增长与二氧化碳排放水平呈正相关。此外，还发现增加的“城市连续性”导致二氧化碳排放量的减少，相反，增加的“城市形状复杂性”对二氧化碳排放量产生了积极的影响。这项研究的结果表明，使中国现有城市更加紧凑的措施实际上可能有助于减少CO2排放水平，就像城市形态的分散化或不规则性增加可能导致CO2排放量增加一样。如果认真考虑实现有意义的二氧化碳排放量减少，则决策者和规划者在发展中国低碳城市时应考虑城市形式。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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